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New preprint with @skepteis, @AnthonyHauser5 and @JulRiou where we investigate counterfactual scenarios of an earlier and later implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against #SARSCoV2 in Switzerland @ISPMBern @unibern (1/5)https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.20158014v1 …
Switzerland currently has around 2,000 fatalities due to #SARSCoV2. Introducing the same sequence of NPIs only one week later would likely have resulted in around 8,683 (95% prediction interval, PI: 8,038-9,453) deaths. (2/5)pic.twitter.com/EeVDpsALbN
A more rapid response with an introduction of NPIs one week earlier would have led to around 399 (95% PI: 347-458) fatalities due to #SARSCoV2 instead. (3/5)
Another important insight: One week of early exponential spread of #SARSCoV2 required roughly 3 weeks of 'lockdown' to reduce the number of infections to the same level again. (4/5)pic.twitter.com/XRtBeeraWS
Time is of the essence when it comes to outbreak response: An early implementation of NPIs during SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks can reduce the number of deaths and the necessary duration of strict control measures considerably. (5/5)
This is key. It’s consistent with the gap in deaths between Ontario and New York State, which have similar populations. NY locked down 2 weeks after Ontario. Ontario has around 3k deaths, New York around 30,000.
So: Just one week later in CH would have lead to dramatically more fatalities than (the more populous) Sweden without those NPIs at all? - Absurd.
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