People always compare the COVID IFR to the flu CFR, not realizing that the flu IFR is below .1% and probably closer to .04%
German study finds 1.3% seroprevalence for #SARSCoV2 in blood donors. If representative for the whole population and given the 9,064 reported deaths, this corresponds to an infection fatality ratio (IFR) of 0.84%. #notlikefluhttps://twitter.com/EckerleIsabella/status/1282641047848398860 …
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Thank you
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German blood have to be infection free for at least 4 weeks before donation. A bias therefore included
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A general benchmark, independent from circumstances could be an IFR of 1%:https://twitter.com/falsel_net/status/1266966277584826368 …
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Isn't there growing evidence that in many formerly infected antibody-levels drop below detection threshold pretty early? Thus what's the relevance of this number? Could contain a large portion of now negative samples from individuals who still had antibodies weeks or months ago
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I think we could find quite a few reasons why blood donors would not be a fully representative sample as they are limited demographic. And, Germany's outbreak is well managed so it didn't seem to reach at risk populations at the same rate as other countries.
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Wait would this mean that ~1 million German people have had Covid19 infections? 5 times the confirmed case count. My guess is blood donors tend on the younger healthier side, excluding anyone under the minimum blood donor age in the country, 16 in the US.
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Here is an example of age distribution in the US.pic.twitter.com/T5hc2ddFjA
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Considering the rise of COVID-deniers, it would be nice if experts, when mentioning IFR, could add that we are talking here about IFR with optimal healthcare, which is certainly much lower than if we let the virus spread freely (no masks, lockdown, testing etc).
@EckerleIsabella -
IFR is certainly over 1% even in ideal circumstances
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Wydaje się, że ładowanie zajmuje dużo czasu.
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