Dear scientists publishing commentaries on #COVID19, 1 - 1/R0 is not a worst case scenario for the final size, it's just flat wrong.
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Agreed. There's a lot of great information in there, which makes it really disappointing that they provide that estimate.
Not sure whether their rationale is that the result from the final size equation is arguably too high, so it could be closer to 1 - 1/R0. But they need to explain.
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Or why they didn't bring up your original point from many weeks ago that we need to know more about over-dispersion.
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That’s okay. They’re old school :)
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