Dear scientists publishing commentaries on #COVID19, 1 - 1/R0 is not a worst case scenario for the final size, it's just flat wrong.
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Was going for a subtweet, but yes, very prominent people in very prominent places. https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620305675.pdf …
I was very surprised to see it in the Lancet Comment. Those people really should know better.
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Agreed. There's a lot of great information in there, which makes it really disappointing that they provide that estimate.
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Not sure whether their rationale is that the result from the final size equation is arguably too high, so it could be closer to 1 - 1/R0. But they need to explain.
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