Christian AlthausKonto zweryfikowane

Thank you! Nice work!

The problem with your modelling is that it does not take the socio economic and cultural values of each region into consideration. Take Iran and the Middle East for example. Mosques on Fridays and cultural along with religious practices in preparation. Nothing like NA or China.

Thank you for sharing and explaining your analysis. I have seen this preprint which takes a different approach, based on data in China, stratifying Hubei vs. non-Hubei: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.17.20023630v3 … I was curious what are your thoughts on their approach and results

Ihre Kritik am BAG stimmt. Ich hab die Hotline des Bundes angerufen. Die Antwort auf meine Frage, ob ich beim Besuch einer Person mit Asthma zu deren Schutz eine Maske tragen soll war, Covid-19 ist nicht gefährlicher als Grippe.

WHO clearly stated that Chinese figures are trustworthy. In Wuhan, with 0.5% of the population infected, for a couple of weeks, healthcare system totally broke down. Result: CFR 4.4% by now, and still increasing, depite 40,000 outside health workers sent in.

CFR still increasing because COVID-19 kills very slowly. With 20% of cases having severe (!) pneumonia (mild pneumonia is in "mild cases"), every single healthcare system would collapse with 0.5% infected like in Wuhan. Then they contained the virus. If we don't succeed, horror.

People dying at home because no healthcare system can cope. Again: Wuhan 0.5% infected. Horror. Read NYT, BBC etc. reports. If unchecked, experts expect 40-70% among adult population. Do the maths.

Your paper is very informative. Have you considered updating results with new data from Korea?

@C_Althaus why does nobody say the thesis that maybe the masks in asia could be the reason for slower spread? As wide population is wearing them it works like a widespread vaccine...

Are the authorities relying on your work for their projections? Also, what is the working assumption for reduction in transmission rate?