Will we wait one weak for out side to read right death ratepic.twitter.com/VRvUx9Jz78
Including the third COVID-19 death outside China in our real-time analysis results in an overall case fatality ratio of 2.2% (95% confidence interval: 0.6%-5.8%)https://github.com/calthaus/ncov-cfr …
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Why don’t people factor in the lead lag? It takes 2-3 weeks for a case to become fatal
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This is what a 7-day lag between infections and deaths looks like. It may we’ll be more than 7 days... and we are not really sure how massaged these data are, are we? Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ pic.twitter.com/VjrND01bAV
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Thanks a lot for the update ! Questions,remarks: You can only include those patients with known symptom onset date, right ? Do you still use 15 days median for the onset-to-death lag ? Also, the latest fatalities were quite elderly 80+. CFR sharply increases with age ....
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Yes and yes.
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Ten tweet jest niedostępny.
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deaths/(deaths+recovered) keeps going down, which is consistent with past experiences with infectious diseases. It currently resolves to around a 15% death rate. A few days ago it was over 20%. My guess is it resolves to around 5%-10% in the final analysis. Hope I'm way high.
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How do we get people to take this as a threat? Most people are completely unconcerned that I talk with. Not worried even a little and NOT preparing. We need people to prepare.
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In our experience (with disaster response and preparedness), the vast majority of people are either under-prepared or unprepared, even with known disasters looming such as a hurricane.
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Wydaje się, że ładowanie zajmuje dużo czasu.
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