Hope you are right. Tried to incorporate these points in my thread but more as correction factors/responses. All to be seen, indeed.https://twitter.com/C_Althaus/status/1228392578351017984 …
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We also find a much lower estimate by incorporating transmission heterogeneity (a point you of course highlight in your thread). Nevertheless, I also share Christian's (and others) concerns about forecasting using any R0-based projection.https://twitter.com/svscarpino/status/1227220044561756163?s=20 …
Forgot to mention this very important point that you beautifully illustrate in your preprint. Btw, would you be interested to run your equations with our posterior distributions of R0 and k?
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Of course! Let me know how I can help. I'm also happy to share my code to solve the equations and plot the figure for a range of R0 and k.
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what he said!
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