But 1-1/R0 would anyway be the wrong equation for final size/attack rate. See the preprint by @svscarpino and @BMAlthouse how final size depends on R0 but also dispersion in secondary cases. https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.04004
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Ten tweet jest niedostępny.
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Ten tweet jest niedostępny.
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Agreed this is not the right measure because of overshoot as well. (Image below from my paper also w/
@BMAlthouse and Mark Tanaka). But it's where his 60% figure comes from.pic.twitter.com/k9ifrg3evH
Wonder what Dr. F-D would tweet if he knew the correct theoretical relationship between R0 and attack rate in a homogeneous population with geometric offspring distribution…
