Christian AlthausKonto zweryfikowane

We've updated @cmmid_lshtm analysis of #nCoV2019 transmission to compare with observed cases reported internationally, and estimate potential for outbreaks in new areas (assuming similar transmission to Wuhan). https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_early_dynamics/index.html … A full pre-print will be online shortly 1/

This may be result of increased surveillance/detection as awareness of 2019-nCoV grew, suggesting earlier exported cases may have missed; it may also be the result of increased travel out of Wuhan immediately prior to travel restrictions being introduced on 23rd January. 3/

To assess potential for outbreaks to occur in new places, we used our estimates of the reproduction number to simulate new outbreaks with potential individual-level variation in transmission (i.e. ‘superspreading’ events). 4/

As always, note that these results depend on some strong assumptions (i.e. transmission in new areas will resemble Wuhan, which it may not). We will continue to update as we get better info 8/8