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If this is quoted correctly https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn … , then @MRC_Outbreak may have increased their estimates substantially, so you may be right. My guess is that this will become clearer in the next couple of days.
Their earlier estimates were based on a much smaller number of exported cases around mid January. There are now over 50 exported cases. So it’s quite likely that epidemic in China is much larger than confirmed cases suggest.
Yes OK: 50 now vs. 7 at the time of writing, so if the central estimate was 4000 then, it should be ~28,000 now, give or take. If the upper confidence interval was 9,700 then, it should be ~70,000 now. Which is the same order as magnitude as the quoted figure.
But for the preprint, they report on 830 confirmed cases by 23 Jan. What do you think that should be compared to? ~8000?? That would indicate ~10% of infections being reported.
At what point do they close borders to Chinese travellers, if ever?
There is wide consensus that travel restrictions are a much less effective form of epidemic control compared to other more targeted non pharmaceutical interventions. See for examplehttps://www.nature.com/articles/nm0506-497 …
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