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Figure 3B shows very encouraging findings, indicating impressive reductions in the time taken to isolate patients after symptoms. Rapid and effective case isolation, as indicated by figure 3B, could play a key role in containing the epidemic.
True. But what if the confirmed cases are only a fraction of the total number of infected people?
Isn’t that pretty much a given, at this stage?
Do you have data that shows this? I think the distribution of severity of infection is still largely undocumented. We don't know what fraction of infection are being missed.
Absolutely, that's an important point. We should be cautious in jumping to conclusions. If most infections become cases, then the improvements in isolation seen in Figure 3B will have a dramatic impact. But we currently have little idea of how many infections are diagnosed.
The interaction between clinical spectrum, health seeking behaviour, clinical services, diagnostic capacity, reporting and modelling future trends is very complex, any estimates are so provisional. Seem to be a ome worrying parameters compared to SARS at the moment
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