It is the intervals that matter here more than the point estimates. A range of 1.4 to 3.8 is covering a vast range of epidemic behaviours. A range of 3.6 to 4.0 is saying something very specific.
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And the R0 is likely to be exceptionally variable among infections, so a mean R0 might not capture well All epidemic dynamics.
- Još 3 druga odgovora
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Wonderful to think about this, and to prepare for different scenarios. But in the same breath, this is all speculative as we don’t have enough data to really know yet.
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Not really: with data on number of regions affected, number of confirmed cases, on date of start of the outbreak, and confirmation of person to person spread, you can form a good estimate of the overall burden and rate of spread, which these reports do.
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Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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What are the 'interval' bits?
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Intervals are confidence intervals. They represent the statistical uncertainty.
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Note that R0 assumes everyone is susceptible. Which would be true for novel coronavirus, but not measles.
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Tagged the wing Jon read I think
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Thank you for posting
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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