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We analyzed the early transmission pattern of #nCoV2019 and estimated R0 around 2.2 (90% high density interval: 1.4-3.8). Our study will be on @biorxivpreprint soon. All documents are available on the following repository: http://github.com/jriou/wcov @ISPMBern @unibernpic.twitter.com/4C1X2n6QBk
The transmission characteristics and the potential for superspreading events appear to be similar to SARS-CoV, but are also consistent with what has been observed for influenza. #nCoV2019
Given the uncertainty around the case fatality rate, our findings highlight the importance of heightened screening, surveillance and control efforts, particularly at airports and other transportation hubs, in order to prevent further international spread of 2019-nCoV. #nCoV2019
I guess you have seen this already. This courageous and honorable health professional says the potential R0 is 14 if isolation and protection not possible. I assume that is the R0 with no sanitary measures in place. We must thank and trust their appraisal.https://mobile.twitter.com/EasternCtNews/status/1221166241303482368 …
No *efficient* sanitary measures in place
I don't know if this may help somewhat in ascertaining when measures started being taken. Still, how do you statistically account for cause of illness or death not being reported adequately, surely one must compare this to past experiences in such cases.https://mobile.twitter.com/AmberNightinga3/status/1221528923281846272 …
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