Don't waste huge amounts of money on unproven pandemic prediction 'strategies' that are guaranteed to fail. Focus on what we know works - capacity building and proactive surveillance. Our #OpEd @naturehttps://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05373-w …
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And Figure 1b here is less specific for Ebola but also enlightening for filovirii:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322747/#!po=29.6053 …
Thanks for these links. The hotspot in Côte d'Ivoire is probably based on the 1994 outbreak in chimpanzees. What’s more surprising is that the EID study identifies Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as a hotspot for hemorrhagic fever but not for Ebola.
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Agreed. And perhaps the preparation and infrastructure necessary to manage Ebola outbreaks is the same as for hemorrhagic fever.
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True. But one of the problems during the outbreak in West Africa was that early cases were misdiagnosed as Lassa fever.
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The Mano River Union countries light up for Ebola in Pigott's papers. Since that paper was published in Sep, 2014, I asked him how well they could forecast before the 2014 outbreak - he showed me their earlier figures, and Guinea convincingly still lit up.pic.twitter.com/Suud9PfLTr
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Very convincing, indeed. Shame the study was not published a few years earlier.
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Wydaje się, że ładowanie zajmuje dużo czasu.
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