Don't waste huge amounts of money on unproven pandemic prediction 'strategies' that are guaranteed to fail. Focus on what we know works - capacity building and proactive surveillance. Our #OpEd @naturehttps://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05373-w …
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I'm going to push back a little on the themes I'm seeing emerging on twitter about this paper. There were predictions that Guinea was a high-risk area for Ebola emergence before the epidemic. Acting on that information in advance might have made the eventual response faster.
Do you have any references on mentioned predictions about Ebola in Guinea?
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Completely agree - and there are some excellent Ebola ‘prediction’ papers out there (e.g. Pigott 2014/16). BUT, the critical point there, is that we’re talking about a *known* outbreak virus - not a novel one. We’re not arguing against the utility of such studies...
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... in fact, such studies can be highly informative. But the difference is that you’re modeling potential trajectories of a know outbreak virus - which makes sense - versus predicting whether a novel virus found in wildlife can cause an outbreak (you can’t).
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A hint of it in Fig 1a here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3323391/#!po=6.56566 …
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And Figure 1b here is less specific for Ebola but also enlightening for filovirii:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322747/#!po=29.6053 …
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Wydaje się, że ładowanie zajmuje dużo czasu.
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