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CT_Bergstrom's profile
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
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@CT_Bergstrom

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Carl T. BergstromVerified account

@CT_Bergstrom

#BlackLivesMatter Information flow in bio, society, & science. Book *Calling Bullshit*: http://tinyurl.com/y7ekfkhx  I love crows and ravens. he/him

Duwamish Lands (Seattle)
ctbergstrom.com
Joined June 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Dec 2020

      There are very few things I feel comfortable saying this about, but I am a relevant expert and Alex has no idea what he's talking about when it comes to the death rate from COVID-19pic.twitter.com/RlAf48ApKs

      31 replies 57 retweets 494 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Dec 2020

      The IFR from COVID-19 varies substantially by age, but is above 1 in 1,000 even at the age of 45 years, and it only goes up from therehttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 …

      4 replies 57 retweets 194 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Dec 2020

      Globally, there are places where the IFR is 0.1-0.15%, but there are also places where it is 1-2% including many areas of the United States 🤷‍♂️

      14 replies 20 retweets 176 likes
      Show this thread
      Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 26 Dec 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      It's shocking, but with 330,000 US deaths to date, 0.1% of the entire US population has died of COVID, making that a rather strong lower bound on IFR.

      2:22 AM - 26 Dec 2020
      • 73 Retweets
      • 269 Likes
      • Susanne Eberhart ⭐️⭐️ Noah Smith 🐇 Totoro Myrrh deedee Isabelle Augs Blackredstudio Daniel proxima ratio
      16 replies 73 retweets 269 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar 26 Dec 2020
          Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @GidMK

          That's just those who died who had a positive test and or clinical diagnosis. Certainly an underestimate.

          1 reply 2 retweets 17 likes
        3. Dr. Swapneil Parikh 💉 💉 😷‏Verified account @swapneilparikh 26 Dec 2020
          Replying to @OYCar @CT_Bergstrom @GidMK

          I understand the need for privacy but I think many would gain perspective if they could see what we see. The most gruesome sights from the pandemic take place behind ICU doors. Most people dismissing COVID-19 don’t have visual context and don’t know what they’re talking about.

          0 replies 6 retweets 54 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Dec 2020
          Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

          Very true, and depressing 😥

          0 replies 3 retweets 28 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. James Heilman‏ @WikiDocJames 26 Dec 2020
          Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @GidMK

          I guess this piece in the @WSJ that put the estimated of IFR at a tenth of that is counting on reincarnation of the dead... It is still 2020 so you never know.https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464?shareToken=st03117be0d6484de0a13e7fc81540a1fd&reflink=article_email_share&fbclid=IwAR3QrdAU25_WvJNfrJlOyzGAGesKlvT1gqVJVsKbbmOME2IyKqgXf-yqBes …

          1 reply 2 retweets 11 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 26 Dec 2020
          Replying to @WikiDocJames @CT_Bergstrom @WSJ

          I'd forgotten about that piece! Even in March, not a good guess imo

          0 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. algebraic geometer BLM‏ @BarbaraFantechi 26 Dec 2020
          Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @GidMK

          A sad reminder that Lombardy reached 0.1% deaths in the first wave, and is now close to 0.25%. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099389/coronavirus-deaths-by-region-in-italy/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 14 likes
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        2. Derek Mereweather‏ @jdmereweather 26 Dec 2020
          Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @GidMK

          And that ignores the massive excess death rate, which could almost double the deaths and the IFR.

          3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        3. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Adam‏ @montrealer97 26 Dec 2020
          Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @walterolson @GidMK

          One in a thousand is one of those ratios that sounds low, but when you’re talking about catastrophic events over very large populations, they’re terrifyingly high.

          1 reply 1 retweet 15 likes
        3. M. Jerolim‏ @panzerschoko 30 Dec 2020
          Replying to @montrealer97 @CT_Bergstrom and

          Would you enter a full Yankee Stadium if you knew 50 random people in it would die?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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