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CT_Bergstrom's profile
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
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@CT_Bergstrom

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Carl T. BergstromVerified account

@CT_Bergstrom

#BlackLivesMatter Information flow in bio, society, & science. Book *Calling Bullshit*: http://tinyurl.com/y7ekfkhx  I love crows & ravens. he/him

Coast Salish Lands (Seattle)
carlbergstrom.com
Joined June 2015

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    Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 2 Jul 2020

    This recommendation from @CDCgov, coupled with the rationale given, beggars belief. This is thinest of absence-of-evidence arguments.pic.twitter.com/QdYy5HKl7E

    1:13 AM - 2 Jul 2020
    • 767 Retweets
    • 2,288 Likes
    • Gavin Zhang,PhD @ABclonal_USA Arthur Allshire Zahir Basrai, MD Albert Cloete Fifty, Foul, A Sly Drunk Oliver Theresa Kwon Ella Nicholson Diane Yanez
    150 replies 767 retweets 2,288 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 2 Jul 2020

        Imagine what would have to be true of young adults for re-entry testing to *not* be helpful. For starters: 1. No transmission from asymptomatic patients. 2. No transmission from mildly symptomatic patients. 3. No pre-symptomatic transmission, or >2 day turnaround on tests.

        8 replies 105 retweets 517 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 2 Jul 2020

        Here are the CDC guidelines: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/colleges-universities/ihe-testing.html … It's true that entry testing will not catch 100% of cases. But it's a powerful way to reduce the initial number of cases circulating in the community, and least give oneself a fighting chance in tricky environment.

        7 replies 69 retweets 417 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 2 Jul 2020

        It's hard for me to fathom the motivation, though the guidelines give some clues. It sounds like there's concern about testing capacity and they're reluctant to recommend entry testing if the tests are needed for symptomatic people elsewhere.pic.twitter.com/TXRZa4ipbs

        30 replies 63 retweets 413 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 2 Jul 2020

        I completely disagree with this approach. If that is the concern, the CDC needs to recommend testing and then acknowledge that in some circumstance the recommended approach may not be feasible because of overwhelming need to use those tests elsewhere.

        11 replies 88 retweets 689 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 2 Jul 2020

        But if you don't even recommend testing, you are not putting pressure on universities to think spend the next two months figuring out how to scale up testing capacity—something which is obviously a desperate need in most parts of the country.

        5 replies 58 retweets 511 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 2 Jul 2020

        There's a ton of uncertainty swirling around COVID, but one thing I am very confident of is that testing asymptomatic individuals provides an important line of defense against spread against the disease. Entry testing is powerful; I want to see frequent on-going testing as well.

        6 replies 93 retweets 572 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 2 Jul 2020

        Ted Bergstrom and I stressed this in a recent @Chronicle of Higher Education piece. Note also that the number of tests needed can be dramatically reduced by using batch testing. http://ctbergstrom.com/publications/pdfs/2020CHE_full.pdf …pic.twitter.com/WrY686R1kS

        5 replies 68 retweets 321 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 2 Jul 2020

        I can't venture to guess the motives of the CDC here. Maybe it's mere incompetence rather than the ongoing slow-walk of testing. Hanlon's razor strains. But this sure looks like the agnotology playbook: manufacturing enough doubt to justify inaction: https://ritholtz.com/2016/06/frightening-global-rise-agnotology/ …pic.twitter.com/wq7NSjQgAq

        12 replies 112 retweets 457 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 2 Jul 2020

        It also looks a lot like the disastrous advice that John Ioannidis published last March. When the train is bearing down on you, don't run—stop and take measurements. It might on the parallel track, or even coming to a stop. A shame to waste steps without knowing they are needed!pic.twitter.com/9WNWVhM4J7

        15 replies 59 retweets 356 likes
        Show this thread
      11. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 2 Jul 2020

        Many colleges and universities, concerned about testing costs but under financial pressure to restart in-personal classes in the fall, will indubitably use these CDC guidelines as cover to open up while doing far too little to ensure the safety of students, faculty, and staff.

        37 replies 113 retweets 454 likes
        Show this thread
      12. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 3 Jul 2020

        Well, that didn't take long. @DrewUniversity is already leaning on CDC's new guidelines to justify their decision to have no asymptomatic testing. http://www.drew.edu/1/emergency-information/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-2/communications-to-the-drew-community/ …pic.twitter.com/sCHnhfhqvB

        12 replies 21 retweets 96 likes
        Show this thread
      13. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 7 Jul 2020

        As we try to sort out the motives behind the CDC's stance, notice that the CDC did not merely fail to recommend testing by issuing no recommendation whatsoever. They explicitly issued a public statement of non-recommendation. That doesn't happen by accident.

        5 replies 18 retweets 96 likes
        Show this thread
      14. End of conversation

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