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CT_Bergstrom's profile
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
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@CT_Bergstrom

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Carl T. BergstromVerified account

@CT_Bergstrom

#BlackLivesMatter Information flow in bio, society, & science. Book *Calling Bullshit*: http://tinyurl.com/y7ekfkhx  I love crows and ravens. he/him

Duwamish Lands (Seattle)
ctbergstrom.com
Joined June 2015

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    Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 29 Jun 2020

    Graphs like the ones below scare me. I can't see how one can spin this as anything other than a disaster in the making. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html …pic.twitter.com/DzVDbvojXr

    7:47 PM - 29 Jun 2020
    • 644 Retweets
    • 1,700 Likes
    • FLTarHeel♥️M4A Sam Leesa 'soapy clean hands' Klich, MSc 🇨🇦 Dr. Mike Chen USA must ratify UNCRC & ERA! 💯🙌❤️🇺🇸 earthbound earthling Jay Lisius Individual Two Sek Kathiresan MD
    62 replies 644 retweets 1,700 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 29 Jun 2020

        People often complain that I'm looking at cases instead of some other metric: hospitalizations, deaths, contestants on the Bachelor who test antibody positive, whatever. "Positive cases are determined by testing." "You can't compare April to June." "Deaths are what matter."

        7 replies 41 retweets 286 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 29 Jun 2020

        I look at cases for two primary reasons. 1) They are a leading indicator. Deaths lag cases by 2-3 weeks, at which point it's too late. 2) Cases are the causal drivers of new cases. Cases now are the best predictor of cases in a week.

        8 replies 102 retweets 557 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 29 Jun 2020

        It's true that changes in testing make it difficult to directly compare case numbers between early April and late June. But that's not what I'm interested in. I don't all that much care whether we're above the peak of the initial spike. What I care about is where we are going.

        4 replies 39 retweets 315 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 29 Jun 2020

        So what I want to do is compare cases in Florida today with cases in Florida a week ago. Barring extraordinary circumstances, testing doesn't ramp up exponentially the way that cases have. On the timescale of a week, testing changes are usually a wash.pic.twitter.com/6vRjC6oB14

        7 replies 46 retweets 291 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 29 Jun 2020

        "What about deaths? Why shouldn't we care about these at least as much as cases? Deaths are not increasing in Florida." Not yet, that's true. But deaths are a severely lagging indicator or at least three reasons.

        9 replies 49 retweets 329 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 29 Jun 2020

        1) It takes 2-3 weeks to progress from infection to death. 2) It often takes a week or more for deaths to be registered. 3) If the leading edge of a spike is driven by younger people, you need one or more rounds of transmission to reach a vulnerable population. But you will.

        32 replies 227 retweets 844 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 29 Jun 2020

        So the trajectory of deaths tells me about how who was infected a month ago was changing, a month ago. I want to know how who is infected now is changing now, and what that bodes for the future.

        30 replies 64 retweets 434 likes
        Show this thread
      9. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Andrew Puetz‏ @AJP_35 29 Jun 2020
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

        1 week in review, if the Monday dip in new cases holds true, then I am very worried about what comes next in Florida 😶pic.twitter.com/W0J3roarM5

        2 replies 4 retweets 10 likes
      3.  ⚡️Kathy E Gill | Get vaccinated, wear a mask!‏ @kegill 29 Jun 2020
        Replying to @AJP_35 @CT_Bergstrom

        Mondays normally a dip because they are reporting Sunday data with reduced test centers and lab hours. See the regular dips (US but states create this pattern).pic.twitter.com/VEqO7HdemG

        0 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Social Distancing Cat‏ @CriticalCricket 29 Jun 2020
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

        This is the Leroy Jenkins strategy.

        1 reply 1 retweet 10 likes
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