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This seems like an extremely strong policy recommendation to be making in the absence of publicly available data.pic.twitter.com/SNliw0jTYt
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@EricTopol has a detailed thread on this issue that is worth reading. https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1269359663591510016?s=21 …https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1269359663591510016 …Show this thread -
I see this being widely interpreted as good news. As with just about everything about this infernal disease, it's more complicated than that.
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Ex ante (e.g., if you'd told me on Feb. 1) it would be unreservedly good news. Controlling a disease without asymptomatic spread is easier and controlling one with it. But it's not ex ante. We now *know* how fast the disease is spreading given our current control measures.
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So what we have to ask ourselves now is "if true, what would this mean about current modes of spread?" It would mean, I think, that pre-symptomatic spread (by people who later develop symptoms) is extremely important.
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And that, in turn, would mean that testing-trace-isolate procedures will be *less* effective than we are hoping. When asymptomatic people transmit disease you have a broad window across which it helps to catch them via testing.
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When only pre-symptomatic people transmit disease, you only have a couple of days to catch them before symptoms develop. Think of it this way. Suppose 50% of transmission is from people without symptoms, and you want to cut that in half.
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If it's all coming from asymptomatic people who shed virus for say 8 days, you need to test people approximately every 4 days to halve that. If it's all coming from presymptomatic people who shed for 2 days, you need to test daily to have the same effect.
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End of conversation
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Seems like no one really knows where a lot of community spread is coming from in a lot of regions
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