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CT_Bergstrom's profile
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
Verified account
@CT_Bergstrom

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Carl T. BergstromVerified account

@CT_Bergstrom

#BlackLivesMatter Information flow in bio, society, & science. Book *Calling Bullshit*: http://tinyurl.com/y7ekfkhx  I love crows and ravens. he/him

Duwamish Lands (Seattle)
ctbergstrom.com
Joined June 2015

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    Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 8 Jun 2020

    This would be an absolute game changer for our modeling work on prevention strategies. It appears there are data behind this but I am unaware of them having been released. Does anyone have any knowledge of where these data may be available?https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html …

    11:58 AM - 8 Jun 2020
    • 276 Retweets
    • 870 Likes
    • Ellie Grisham Joanna Mallon tozai 滝沢やすこ🏡江戸川区議会議員🌈 Fernando Chávez 🇬🇧Bridgette York 💙#PatientExperience Research trevor smith 泡麦茶(2%) Aviva Lev-Ari
    76 replies 276 retweets 870 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 8 Jun 2020

        pic.twitter.com/7dTdm8z2sY

        11 replies 23 retweets 91 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 8 Jun 2020

        This seems like an extremely strong policy recommendation to be making in the absence of publicly available data.pic.twitter.com/SNliw0jTYt

        18 replies 51 retweets 274 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 8 Jun 2020

        Carl T. Bergstrom Retweeted Eric Topol

        @EricTopol has a detailed thread on this issue that is worth reading. https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1269359663591510016?s=21 …https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1269359663591510016 …

        Carl T. Bergstrom added,

        Eric TopolVerified account @EricTopol
        How can a virus leave some people without any symptoms and kill others? A thread about #SARSCoV2 and what we know and need to do about asymptomatic infections Starting with our @AnnalsofIM paper this week, w/ @danieloran https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-3012 …
        Show this thread
        4 replies 36 retweets 149 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 8 Jun 2020

        I see this being widely interpreted as good news. As with just about everything about this infernal disease, it's more complicated than that.

        3 replies 27 retweets 130 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 8 Jun 2020

        Ex ante (e.g., if you'd told me on Feb. 1) it would be unreservedly good news. Controlling a disease without asymptomatic spread is easier and controlling one with it. But it's not ex ante. We now *know* how fast the disease is spreading given our current control measures.

        2 replies 10 retweets 97 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 8 Jun 2020

        So what we have to ask ourselves now is "if true, what would this mean about current modes of spread?" It would mean, I think, that pre-symptomatic spread (by people who later develop symptoms) is extremely important.

        5 replies 20 retweets 157 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 8 Jun 2020

        And that, in turn, would mean that testing-trace-isolate procedures will be *less* effective than we are hoping. When asymptomatic people transmit disease you have a broad window across which it helps to catch them via testing.

        3 replies 15 retweets 71 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 8 Jun 2020

        When only pre-symptomatic people transmit disease, you only have a couple of days to catch them before symptoms develop. Think of it this way. Suppose 50% of transmission is from people without symptoms, and you want to cut that in half.

        2 replies 16 retweets 86 likes
        Show this thread
      10. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 8 Jun 2020

        If it's all coming from asymptomatic people who shed virus for say 8 days, you need to test people approximately every 4 days to halve that. If it's all coming from presymptomatic people who shed for 2 days, you need to test daily to have the same effect.

        19 replies 31 retweets 126 likes
        Show this thread
      11. End of conversation
      1. Aggressive Negotiations  ↙️ ↙️ ↙️ 🏴 🏳️‍🌈‏ @WeloveSWprequel 8 Jun 2020
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

        Seems like no one really knows where a lot of community spread is coming from in a lot of regions

        0 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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