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CT_Bergstrom's profile
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
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@CT_Bergstrom

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Carl T. BergstromVerified account

@CT_Bergstrom

#BlackLivesMatter Information flow in bio, society, & science. Book *Calling Bullshit*: http://tinyurl.com/y7ekfkhx  I love crows and ravens. he/him

Duwamish Lands (Seattle)
ctbergstrom.com
Joined June 2015

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    Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

    With guidance from this newly released CDC document, federal agencies are modeling the COVID pandemic using implausibly low fatality rate. Their "best estimate" has a symptomatic CFR of 0.4% Their worst case scenario has CFR — not IFR — of 1% https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html …pic.twitter.com/C4tGpsykHj

    4:00 PM - 21 May 2020
    • 590 Retweets
    • 1,112 Likes
    • Katheryn Burns John Myers Hogeye Grex LIndenArden Mark Lindsay lori Lyndie Dylan Stetson Mistaken Identity
    101 replies 590 retweets 1,112 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

        Their best estimate of the CFR for people over 65 is 1.3%, and the worst case scenario is 3.2%. I'd love to know how these estimates were obtained, given that they are being used for government planning and recommended to modelers everywhere. h/t @RAVerBruggen, @AndreasShruggedpic.twitter.com/vGv2pJsDLl

        12 replies 109 retweets 424 likes
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      3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

        The more I think about it, the more this bothers me. These numbers are so far outside of the scientific consensus that this strikes me as a devious and cynical effort to manipulate not only federal modeling but the broader scientific discourse.

        54 replies 362 retweets 1,192 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

        People are asking me what the IFR ranges ought to be. That's tricky and depends in part on the purpose of the models for which the parameters are intended. That said, I'd want to span the range of reasonable estimates, and I want a point estimate that in accord with such.

        3 replies 33 retweets 200 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

        The CDC estimates do not seem to be doing that. Here's one reasonable (IMO) systematic review of IFR estimates. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2 … John Ioannidis has lower ranges here https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.article-metrics …, but I don't find them credible; see https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1262956011872280577 …pic.twitter.com/erhe41abOV

        7 replies 56 retweets 217 likes
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      6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

        Imperial College Report 23, released today, estimates IFR for all US states. Almost all of the CDC's parameter range falls well below the almost all of the probability mass in the Imperial estimates. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-23-united-states/ …pic.twitter.com/nDKHooag1V

        12 replies 103 retweets 288 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 21 May 2020

        Update: fixed the decimal place for the CDC "best estimate":pic.twitter.com/gCYN6eXk1Z

        19 replies 45 retweets 170 likes
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      8. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 22 May 2020

        CNN reports on the CDC's parameters. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html …pic.twitter.com/hkzFgzBAXG

        12 replies 47 retweets 179 likes
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      9. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 22 May 2020

        For people who don't like the Imperial College numbers, here is the CDC's parameter range overlaid against the data from the meta-analysis cited above (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v2.full.pdf …)pic.twitter.com/FqbwSFPv8o

        11 replies 36 retweets 157 likes
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      10. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 28 May 2020

        Followup from @RAVerBruggen:https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/ …

        8 replies 26 retweets 74 likes
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      11. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 11 Jul 2020

        The CDC has updated their IFR estimates to a range of 0.5-0.8%, with a best guess of 0.65%. These seem reasonable to me, they reflect current consensus thinking, and I'm pleased to see this. h/t @geoffmpricehttps://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#table-1 …

        29 replies 126 retweets 323 likes
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      12. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 11 Jul 2020

        Of course IFR not a universal constant; it varies by location according to demographics, risk factors, mode of transmission and viral load, etc. It could end up being higher in some places, or lower in others. But the range 0.5-0.8% seems good for e.g. a 25%-75% confidence range.

        12 replies 9 retweets 76 likes
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      13. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 11 Jul 2020

        I'd been saying 0.5-1.5% for several months. In general, IFR estimates seem to have be converging on the lower half of this range, perhaps dipping lower domestically due to the demographic skew of cases during US reopening. Unfortunately as older people are infected, it can rise.

        8 replies 7 retweets 63 likes
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      14. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 11 Jul 2020

        One recent paper estimates an IFR toward the top end of my 0.5-1.5% range in NYC during its first wave. I have not spent enough time with this paper to have a strong judgment about that value, but want to share it for context.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.27.20141689v1 …

        15 replies 11 retweets 40 likes
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      15. End of conversation

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