Here's that test sensitivity curve (and bonus NPV analogue), from https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.7326/M20-1495 …pic.twitter.com/UNNxHqqASO
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Here's that test sensitivity curve (and bonus NPV analogue), from https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.7326/M20-1495 …pic.twitter.com/UNNxHqqASO
Probably the bigger issue is the neglect of transitory dynamics. Short-term behavioral responses to lifting a lockdown are not going to be indicative of the long-term behavioral consequences.
And then there's a Berkson's paradox issue. The states are not randomly chosen for reopening; reopening depends on local trends already underway.
I can't believe that this is a serious JP Morgan report. They're a huge operation with enormous sums of money at stake. If they were this incompetent, the government would have had to bail them out to the tune of eleven figures at least once in the past couple decades.
The bottom line is that until the report is public (can anyone find it?), these are just dots someone drew on a graph, no more meaningful than, say: CTBergstrom has a devastating piece arguing that silliness rates have declined—not increased—after lockdowns have ended.pic.twitter.com/xUf7gFcbtp
@JohnCleese of course deserves all the credit for anything that might be funny about the above.
When has JP Morgan Quantitative and Derivative Strategy ever led us into a crisis before?
Underrated post.
I listen to JPM about finance and stocks...not pandemics
You should still be able to measure a rate of change in R(t) this way despite that issue, although it depends how you're doing it. As you say, we need more information about the methods, but that particular issue is not a deal-breaker.
I suspect they're not doing anything fancy unfortunately.
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