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CT_Bergstrom's profile
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
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@CT_Bergstrom

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Carl T. BergstromVerified account

@CT_Bergstrom

#BlackLivesMatter Information flow in bio, society, & science. Book *Calling Bullshit*: http://tinyurl.com/y7ekfkhx  I love crows and ravens. he/him

Duwamish Lands (Seattle)
ctbergstrom.com
Joined June 2015

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    Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 20 May 2020

    Carl T. Bergstrom Retweeted Carl Quintanilla

    It would be nice to see methods here. Are they really using a 7 day lag to get the post-lockdown points? Because given incubation periods and the sensitivity-over-time curve, a majority of positives 7 days after lockdown were still infected pre-lockdown.https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1263170459450978314 …

    Carl T. Bergstrom added,

    Carl QuintanillaVerified account @carlquintanilla
    JPMorgan has a devastating piece arguing that infection rates have declined — not increased — in states where lockdowns have ended, “even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.” (Kolonavic) (1/x) pic.twitter.com/E6TJ3Qsa2b
    Show this thread
    7:14 PM - 20 May 2020
    • 153 Retweets
    • 597 Likes
    • Jonathan Bryan Frank 🇺🇸Vaccinate America🇺🇸 zumi🏳️‍⚧️bumi Smellofmusk Ultan O'Connell Fish Thinkers Brutamonte Donnaruma Fernanda Lima LetsYouDown
    54 replies 153 retweets 597 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 20 May 2020

        Here's that test sensitivity curve (and bonus NPV analogue), from https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.7326/M20-1495 …pic.twitter.com/UNNxHqqASO

        1 reply 13 retweets 122 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 20 May 2020

        Probably the bigger issue is the neglect of transitory dynamics. Short-term behavioral responses to lifting a lockdown are not going to be indicative of the long-term behavioral consequences.

        5 replies 11 retweets 203 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 20 May 2020

        And then there's a Berkson's paradox issue. The states are not randomly chosen for reopening; reopening depends on local trends already underway.

        8 replies 14 retweets 258 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 20 May 2020

        I can't believe that this is a serious JP Morgan report. They're a huge operation with enormous sums of money at stake. If they were this incompetent, the government would have had to bail them out to the tune of eleven figures at least once in the past couple decades.

        32 replies 119 retweets 752 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 20 May 2020

        The bottom line is that until the report is public (can anyone find it?), these are just dots someone drew on a graph, no more meaningful than, say: CTBergstrom has a devastating piece arguing that silliness rates have declined—not increased—after lockdowns have ended.pic.twitter.com/xUf7gFcbtp

        13 replies 73 retweets 511 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 20 May 2020

        @JohnCleese of course deserves all the credit for anything that might be funny about the above.

        5 replies 3 retweets 154 likes
        Show this thread
      8. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. iAMB‏ @momentofmagnus 20 May 2020
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

        When has JP Morgan Quantitative and Derivative Strategy ever led us into a crisis before?

        6 replies 27 retweets 383 likes
      3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 20 May 2020
        Replying to @momentofmagnus

        Underrated post.

        1 reply 0 retweets 97 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. BruceDickenson‏ @BruceDickenson1 20 May 2020
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

        I listen to JPM about finance and stocks...not pandemics

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
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      1. New conversation
      2. Kostya Medvedovsky‏ @kmedved 20 May 2020
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

        You should still be able to measure a rate of change in R(t) this way despite that issue, although it depends how you're doing it. As you say, we need more information about the methods, but that particular issue is not a deal-breaker.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Kostya Medvedovsky‏ @kmedved 20 May 2020
        Replying to @kmedved @CT_Bergstrom

        I suspect they're not doing anything fancy unfortunately.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation

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