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CT_Bergstrom's profile
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
Verified account
@CT_Bergstrom

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Carl T. BergstromVerified account

@CT_Bergstrom

Biology professor, @UW. Information flow in science and society. Book *Calling Bullshit*: http://tinyurl.com/fdcuvd7b  I love ravens and crows. he/him

Coast Salish Lands (Seattle)
carlbergstrom.com
Joined June 2015

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    Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 5 May 2020

    Carl T. Bergstrom Retweeted CEA45 Archived

    We've been asking WTF all day long. I believe that @mikha_ehl figured it out. IHME modeled the epidemic curve by exponentiating a quadratic. @RealDonaldTrump has all the best models, so the White House took it to the next level and exponentiated a CUBIC.https://twitter.com/WhiteHouseCEA45/status/1257680258364555264 …

    Carl T. Bergstrom added,

    CEA45 Archived @WhiteHouseCEA45
    To better visualize observed data, we also continually update a curve-fitting exercise to summarize COVID-19's observed trajectory. Particularly with irregular data, curve fitting can improve data visualization. As shown, IHME's mortality curves have matched the data fairly well. pic.twitter.com/NtJcOdA98R
    Show this thread
    3:19 pm - 5 May 2020
    • 59 Retweets
    • 223 Likes
    • Michelle fipco-bio🌻 GEODUCK-19 Charles Bardeen Volkan Kubali Theresa-Marie Rhyne Baryonyx walkeri Steve Canon Michael Young 🌻
    26 replies . 59 retweets 223 likes
      1. New conversation
      1. Kellum Dander‏ @kellumdander 5 May 2020
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @mikha_ehl @realDonaldTrump

        Kellum Dander Retweeted Kellum Dander

        https://twitter.com/kellumdander/status/1256867171914956800?s=19 …

        Kellum Dander added,

        Kellum Dander @kellumdander
        Here's the most recent #IHME #COVID__19 forecast that's being used to guide public policy decisions, overlaid on top of the actual daily death rate. Even four days into the forecast, it's off by 70%. Why isn't the media calling bullshit? Because this is bullshit. pic.twitter.com/7Hz9YOimfK
        Show this thread
        1 reply . 3 retweets 16 likes
      2. Kellum Dander‏ @kellumdander 5 May 2020
        Replying to @kellumdander @CT_Bergstrom and

        They updated the model since I tweeted this, but even the updated model is still bullshit.

        1 reply . 0 retweets 18 likes
      3. Show replies
      1. Mister D‏ @CallMeMisterD 5 May 2020
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @mikha_ehl @realDonaldTrump

        All the smart maths people looking for some kind of clever answer Turned out it was the janitor in a bad mask all along

        0 replies . 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. Andrew  🌐‏ @Aspiringshill 5 May 2020
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @mikha_ehl @realDonaldTrump

        The Big Short-style movie made about Trump's Covid-19 response is going to be a lot simpler.

        0 replies . 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      2. Roman Ramírez‏ @roman_s_ramirez 5 May 2020

        From my limited and probably incorrect understanding, they tortured the data to fit a narrative i.e., "deaths will drop soon and everything will be okay 🇺🇲 ".

        1 reply . 1 retweet 8 likes
        3. End of conversation
      1. Jane Moore‏ @5thGenFlaJane 5 May 2020
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @mikha_ehl @realDonaldTrump

        I wish I understood this.

        0 replies . 0 retweets 0 likes
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      6. New conversation
      1. Hayden‏ @hjrrockies 5 May 2020
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @mikha_ehl @realDonaldTrump

        Isn’t exponentiating a quadratic just a Gaussian density?

        1 reply . 0 retweets 23 likes
      2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom 5 May 2020
        Replying to @hjrrockies @mikha_ehl @realDonaldTrump

        Bingo.

        2 replies . 0 retweets 17 likes
      3. Show replies
      7. New conversation
      1. Miriam van Gool‏ @MiriamvGool 5 May 2020
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom @mikha_ehl @realDonaldTrump

        Miriam van Gool Retweeted Nate Silver

        Nate Silver also looked at this, see this thread...https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1257476755574718470?s=20 …

        Miriam van Gool added,

        Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
        I would bet $538 that the White House's "cubic model" is literally just an MS-EXCEL trendline with a third-degree (cubic) polynomial. https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1257395401461727232 …
        Show this thread
        1 reply . 1 retweet 5 likes
      2. Ellie Coyote  🌻 🕷️‏ @LEDCoyote 5 May 2020
        Replying to @MiriamvGool @CT_Bergstrom and

        I won't

        1 reply . 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Show replies

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