Carl T. BergstromVerified account

@CT_Bergstrom

Information flow in bio, society, & science. Book *Calling Bullshit*: I love crows & ravens. he/him

Coast Salish Lands (Seattle)
carlbergstrom.com
Joined June 2015
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    5 Aug 2021

    Today, my book Calling Bullshit, written with , is being released as a UK paperback. I can barely get my head around the idea of seeing of my name in white letters against an orange spine, above that classic black-and-white logo.

    56 replies 139 retweets 1,428 likes
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  2. 2 hours ago

    Gotham city

    9 replies 14 retweets 283 likes
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  3. 16 hours ago

    was on it back then. 🧵

    In our course, we teach a very simple method for bullshit detection. When you hear a claim, ask yourself 1) Who is telling me this, 2) How do they know it, and 3) What are they trying to sell me? Let's try it out.
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    3 replies 7 retweets 33 likes
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  4. 16 hours ago

    Seriously why is running the same recycled advertisements disguised as news that they ran last May?

    Diamonds grown in a lab don't conjure up quite the same emotions as natural diamonds do
    9 replies 8 retweets 112 likes
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  5. 20 hours ago

    Walrasian demand. Sealeonian demand.

    1 reply 5 retweets 48 likes
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  6. 20 hours ago

    Despite this rather uninspired defense of their stance, I think the recommendation may be ok, especially for asymptomatic individuals. We'll know a lot more when we have a better idea about how Omicron disease kinetics compare to those of previous strains.

    6 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
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  7. 20 hours ago

    "Modeling data from the United Kingdom reinforce the importance of mask use; after the 5th day after a positive test, an estimated 31% of persons remain infectious [16]." I.e., only a third of people will be infectious when we release them from isolation.

    6 replies 23 retweets 43 likes
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  8. 20 hours ago

    "Studies suggest that only a small percentage of people (25-30%) isolate for a full 10 days [12,13]." The old `Why recommend it if people don't do it anyway?' argument.

    4 replies 1 retweet 40 likes
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  9. 20 hours ago

    "some reports suggest that compared with previous variants, Omicron has a shorter incubation period (2-4 days), defined as the time between becoming infected and symptom onset " OK, but what matters for their recommendation is disease kinetics AFTER symptom onset.

    2 replies 3 retweets 30 likes
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  10. 20 hours ago

    Here's what they bring: "Infectiousness peaks around one day before symptom onset and declines within a week of symptom onset, with an average period of infectiousness and risk of transmission between 2-3 days before and 8 days after symptom onset [2,3]. " Is that reassuring?

    3 replies 6 retweets 30 likes
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  11. 20 hours ago

    The CDC also released an explicit explanation for their decision to reduce the isolation period to 5 days. My tl;dr summary is that it's a remarkably unconvincing argument for what could actually be a correct decision.

    2 replies 11 retweets 46 likes
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  12. 21 hours ago

    What about symptomatic individuals? We really need to know more about the disease kinetics of Omicron, but we can use mathematical modeling to determine the conditions under which it would reasonable to deisolate on day 5. My colleagues and I are working on that now.

    5 replies 4 retweets 50 likes
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  13. 21 hours ago

    Of course it'll depend on the frequency of testing and the duration of infectiousness for Omicron. Note that if asymptomatics tend to be infectious for 6-7 days or fewer, day five deisolation won't be so bad because most will be past day 6 by "day 5 after a positive test."

    2 replies 4 retweets 27 likes
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  14. 21 hours ago

    After a week to think about it, de-isolating five days after a positive test may be ok for asymptomatic individuals—given how infrequently we are testing people in this country. A substantial majority will have been positive for one or more days before being tested, after all.

    8 replies 7 retweets 34 likes
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  15. 21 hours ago

    The latest update stops short of recommending an exit test at day 5, but provides some guidance if you have a test and want to use it.

    2 replies 8 retweets 21 likes
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  16. Retweeted
    Jan 4
    Replying to

    I believe we did the grant funding paper without grant funding. We did recently shepherd a grant about grant peer review though the process of grant peer review, and took the opportunity to break that fourth wall.

    5 replies 5 retweets 28 likes
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  17. Retweeted
    Jan 4

    THIS. Senior academics should be competing on the value they serve to support junior academics, not the other way around. Our current hierarchy competes mostly for status quos and stagnation. If we want innovation and progress, empower the ECRs.

    Replying to @hardsci @lilopozzo
    I've long argued that rather than having grant panels allocate funding to projects and PIs assigning them to students, funding agencies should fund students directly and allow them to vote with their feet. They've got more information and incentive to choose wisely than anyone.
    1 reply 13 retweets 85 likes
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  18. Jan 4

    Thank you algorithm. When reading 's response to Pedro Domingos's false and harmful tweet, Jordan Peterson was exactly what I was looking for. 🤦‍♂️

    2 replies 5 retweets 78 likes
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  19. Jan 4

    Seattle / King Country Omicron Update: Don't be fooled by holiday reporting lags. It may have looked like things were slowing down, but 11400+ backlogged cases just came in. That's nearly 3000 a day over the past 4 days. We're still seeing astronomical growth in daily cases.

    12 replies 41 retweets 116 likes
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  20. Retweeted
    Jan 3

    A gentle crow

    15 replies 61 retweets 614 likes
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  21. Jan 4

    FWIW, here's the paper we wrote on the inefficiency of the grant proposal system. And that's just the part where you write a meaningful scientific proposal. The sort of deadweight loss I've been dealing with tonight doesn't even come into that model.

    6 replies 22 retweets 169 likes
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