CBS News senior national correspondent Mark Strassmann reports from Atlanta on a new CBS News poll that finds Americans are feeling better about some things in the new year, but there's still a lot of angst out there.
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Inflation, cooperation and…investigation?
Our look at what Americans say Congress should - and should not - do...
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Self-identified "MAGA" Republicans are much more likely than other Reps to prioritize investigation
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Most Reps - but not all - say investigating Biden a high priority...
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Americans' look to 2023: Things get better, but still not good
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Most rank-and-file Republicans want to see at least some party loyalty toward Donald Trump.
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That extends beyond the former president himself:
Reps overwhelmingly want the party to follow Trump policies and views on 2020.
(there hasn't been change on that front from a year ago.)
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Views on the 2022 election
Election denialism is not nearly the level we see with regard to 2020, but Reps are four times as likely as Dems to say 2022 wasn’t legitimate.
That group is disproportionately made up of MAGA Reps & Trump voters who don’t believe Dems won the Senate
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What about views of democracy?
They have moved in a more positive direction, as the idea that it is secure is up ten points from before the fall campaign, but most still see it as threatened.
This uptick is driven by more Democrats feeling secure about democracy now.
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Some pessimism:
Americans are largely pessimistic about...
Prices, the stock market
Peace and stability in the world, the climate & prospect of extreme weather events
And very pessimistic about U.S. politics
t.ly/NmsOX
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And Americans feel very positive & optimistic about the fight against COVID - despite concern among some scientists about winter outbreaks - which marks quite a change from the start of 2022.
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Some optimism:
Ratings of the economy are higher but yet good. The job market stands out as a bright spot, even as concerns about inflation continue. t.ly/NmsOX
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Americans on 2023: Things get better, but still not good
More Americans -but still just a third - say things in the country are going well than said so at the start of 2022, but this is tempered by pessimism about plenty of issues. t.ly/NmsOX
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Investigations?
Republicans also put a high priority on investigating Pres. Biden, and also his son, Hunter Biden, particularly those who define themselves as part of the MAGA movement.
Most Americans, and most non-MAGA Republicans, do not agree. t.ly/1DDgD
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Will people get what they voted for?
When we look at priorities by how votes were cast in 2022, they reflect much of what we saw in the campaign. t.ly/1DDgD
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But how will Congress get there?
Reps are split in their approach: half want their House delegation to work with Dems on matters where they agree. Half want them to focus on stopping Biden and Dems, especially MAGA Republicans.
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Priorities for Congress:
Big bipartisan majorities say Congress should address inflation, reduce crime, and protect Social Security and Medicare. t.ly/1DDgD
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*New* CBS News Poll
Inflation, Cooperation and…Investigation?
Americans say what the new Congress should - and shouldn’t - deliver
Republicans split on approach to dealing with Biden and Democrats
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*New* CBS News Poll
Americans on 2023: Things get better, but still not good
Economy views up but concerns about costs remain high
Read it here:
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CBS News projects Raphael Warnock re-elected to U.S. Senate
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With over 80% of votes left to count estimated to be in Atlanta metro area + suburbs, our models currently indicate Warnock lead of about 3 points... #GArunoff twitter.com/kabir_here/sta…
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Your new U.S. Senate balance of power: 51 D to 49 R
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CBS News projects Raphael Warnock re-elected to U.S. Senate twitter.com/kabir_here/sta…
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BREAKING: Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock wins the Georgia Senate runoff, defeating Republican challenger Herschel Walker, CBS News projects. Democrats now hold a Senate majority of 51 seats. bit.ly/3URQte1
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GA Sen Rating: lean dem
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Our model estimates have this GA Sen race at lean Warnock as of right now
(could still change)
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From the national exit poll:
Nancy Pelosi has been a polarizing figure and views of 2022 midterm voters reflected that.
Most in her own party view her favorably, but she elicits especially negative views from Republican voters.
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Seeing pundits continues to blame bad polls rather than bad analysis, I am lifting up .
Weeks ago, noted that high turnout from youth & POC would make House toss-up.
Problem w/ this election is less about high quality polls, more about outdated convention wisdom.
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No pressure #GenZ & #millennials but take a look at what @SalvantoCBS sees:
"If younger voters & POC match 2018's record-setting turnout ... House control becomes a toss-up"
twitter.com/SalvantoCBS/st…
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Worth noting --
Mail ballots helped push Republicans > 218
in places like California and Arizona, among others.
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Another lesson more broadly: rely on singular, well-designed polls or analysis *more than averages*.
There’s never been more quality data analytics out there than we see today.
Why intentionally dilute that?
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CBS News projection: GOP wins majority of seats in U.S. House
CBS estimates Republicans will end up with between 218 and 223 seats when all votes have been counted
#Midterms2022
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We now project Republicans at 218 and majority of House
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Perceived extremism of GOP candidates played a role. In each of these races, more independents described the Republican candidate as "too extreme" compared to the Democratic candidate.
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2022 SENATE RACES: INDEPENDENTS
In key battleground Senate races the Dems won, they did so with support from independent voters, according to current exit polls. (By a narrow edge in NV)…
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RATINGS: with is the #1 Sunday morning public affairs program in viewers on Nov. 13.
Season-to-date, FTN remains the most-watched Sunday show in its category for the 3rd consecutive year.
More: bit.ly/3EApJd2
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Data > “vibes”
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Midterms lesson:
Good polling (which is to say, listening to people) > punditry
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McCarthy, who could be the next Speaker, is viewed more favorably by voters in his own party, but not overwhelmingly so.
One in five GOP voters did not offer an opinion of him, indicating McCarthy may not be all that well known to voters nationwide.
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CBS News Exit Poll:
While his party is within striking distance of winning control of the House, Kevin McCarthy is viewed more negatively than positively by 2022 midterm voters, according to national exit polls.
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👇🏼 This. A thousand times this. All the praise for , led by & co.
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In contrast to so many guarantees of a towering "red wave" @CBSPolitics deserves major credit for acknowledging that there was a turnout scenario, particularly among younger adults, that produced a much closer House outcome-closer, in fact, to what we are seeing play out now twitter.com/SalvantoCBS/st…
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