@ByronYork Am I missing something from this small discrep. in polls listed? Now PBO 9 pts above Romney , O +4 over romney in another poll.
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@ByronYork Look @ Romney's crowd size & age compared 2 Obama, the enthusiasm is on Romney's side!Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork Skepticism cause of the polls weighting (many use '08 party numbers instead of '10), look @ recent wisconsin polling, way off!Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork Yes, the final avg. was close. The problem then and NOW is the weeks and months before. They showed a much larger gap for BHO.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork 7.6 and 7.3 is actually much closer than I would've guessed.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork They always end up close because the mainstream media polls don't want to look stupid, but earlier they all slant to the Dems.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Those polls farthest off in '08 included CBS, NBC, ABC, Gallup, Newsweek, etc. MT
@ByronYork ...skepticism about polls http://ow.ly/dz7L6Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork I've always thought polls in the aggregate at RCP are extremely reliable. If Romney is down 1pt or less in RCP think he can win.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork Skepticism about polls: The last refuge of the very worriedThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork@SeanTrende I'm not skeptical of polls, rather of polls with odd samples (EG, +10 D; Gallup O 53% approve was ADULTS, not RV/LV)Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork I cannot imagine he will do well with late deciders, indies, etc. expect they go for MR 60-40 or maybe more.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork which theory do you buy? That incumbent with 1-2 pt lead can squeak out ground game win? Or incumb mired in 48 job approve loses?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork Difference is ENTHUSIASM. There are some angry folks out there who are tired of being lied to. GOP/Indie turnout FOR Romney.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork aren't large bulk of polls now still RVs? my question is, when will they all go to LV? This is key. Romney will be at worst tied.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork when does Gallup, and the rest, move to LV only??Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork Was there skepticism about the polls in 2008? I don't remember any. The question is will 2012 turnout look like 2008.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork so with all these poll's does that mean its over. Why even bother having an election?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@ByronYork I think the key word is "final". As we get closer the polls updates are more frequent and based on likely voters. Not there yet.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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