The Monty Hall Problem of Hearthstone Read: http://tl.gd/n_1sr04bf
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Yes playing the quest lowers your chance to find a particular card from your deck by 1/30. Think of it this way: you rate the cards in your deck from most 30 (most powerful/useful) to 1 (least powerful). Then replace the card you rate a 1 by the quest. Then by always mulliganing
the card you rated 1 you increase the average value you have post-mulligan. Increases average powerlevel of hand, but reduces chance of finding particular cards.
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taking away the chance to have the worst card in your deck in that quest slot is still outweighed by you having no option to just keep a good card pre mulligan, so average power level of the hand(which should be based on how many good cards you have) would be lower imo.
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Yes, it's a small upside that comes with a huge downside. Absolutely not worth it
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