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Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
Perhaps Mr. Mnuchin should brush up on his basic math skills instead as he obviously does not understand the fundamental cause and effect principle between carbon emissions and climate catastrophe.
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NYTimes could learn from Superforecaster and check the base rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debate_on_the_monarchy_in_Canada ….
@superforecasterhttps://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1216004792998354945 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Capitalism’s finest hourshttps://twitter.com/normative/status/1215361350018437132 …
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Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
A thoughtful effort to anticipate key themes in the 2020s. Unfortunately, its first falsifiable forecast is false. People often over-predict change (e.g., Ch. 2, Expert Political Judgment). One reason: we get more credit for correctly predicting change than the boring status quohttps://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1210931176212516864 …
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Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
Thank you for inviting the professional Superforecasters at Good Judgment Inc to collaborate on this innovative project.
@superforecaster@PTetlockhttps://twitter.com/arab_strategy/status/1203759941821063170 …
0:44Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
An all-time classic from the
@NewYorkerpic.twitter.com/bDYip1y2pD
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Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
Before arguing with friends or family around the Thanksgiving table, take a look at the science behind arguing better. And it'll never hurt to try this: "Listen to people, get them to think about their own experience, and highlight your common humanity."https://www.vox.com/2016/11/23/13708996/argue-better-science …
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Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
Ed Thorp is extraordinarily smart https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_O._Thorp … So, when “Superforecasting” made the “Thinking like Thorp” booklist, it made my dayhttps://twitter.com/tomrollinger/status/1191965143271383040 …
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Fully agree. Mine alsohttps://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/1185606937523769345 …
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Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
Over last 40 years, we labeled too many effects “biases.” Indeed, some of the effects were not even replicable. But there’s enough truth in this clever taxonomy to make it worth your while.https://twitter.com/jflier/status/1178765686916689922 …
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Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
An interesting read from an ex-Amazon employee who had 50 meetings w/ Jeff Bezos. It starts as a guide to writing memos (with some good tips) but becomes advice on how not to anger Jeff in meetings. Some of the reasons he gets mad seem valid, others
https://blog.usejournal.com/writing-docs-at-amazon-e025808616bd …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Classic sales technique is questionedhttps://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1168798445542551553 …
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Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
Why Did Darker and Lighter Human Skin Colors Evolve
@DiscoverMag http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/crux/2019/01/28/human-skin-color-explained-vitamind-folate/#.XE-YmlVKjIV …pic.twitter.com/cXsfhDCvco
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Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
My heart tells me she is right. The base rates--for the life cycles of social movements-- tell me she is wrong. The curse of "superforecasting."https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1163058965577474049 …
0:25Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je TweetHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Great article that can explain the loyalty of trump votershttps://twitter.com/PTetlock/status/1161302955737440256 …
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Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
Agreed: you don’t “have to be” a jerk to be great. But tougher question is: Is life sprinkled lots of little choices with jerkiness-greatness trade-offs? We desperately need op-eds that acknowledge trade-offs, even taboo trade-offs.pic.twitter.com/0wtWTRbUol
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Add Franfurt, Heathrow, O’Hare. Stockholm is no joy.https://twitter.com/TBPInvictus/status/1150479921439006720 …
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Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
Savor epigrammatic genius. Not just the greats of the past but those who walk among us today
@jasonzweigwsjpic.twitter.com/EBWemyZV6O
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Brian Labatte proslijedio/la je Tweet
Amen, Michael Brier’s 1950 paper is one reason why meteorologists in 2019 are among the best calibrated subjective-probability forecasters on the planet. They learned early how to keep score. Unfortunately, it takes a long time for some great ideas to spread
@mjmauboussin.https://twitter.com/mjmauboussin/status/1148989787283611649 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
Twitter je možda preopterećen ili ima kratkotrajnih poteškoća u radu. Pokušajte ponovno ili potražite dodatne informacije u odjeljku Status Twittera.
The one certainty is that things will change more than we tend to assume.