Please help me collect 'prediction failures', that is technologies or products that EVERYONE thought would be huge but ended up failing. I'll start with an old one: Quadraphonic sound It was an excellent experience but hard to setup and limited by few recordings.
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To be clear, there are LOTS of failures out there. THANK YOU for all the replies! The best example so far has been Conversational UIs which nearly everyone thought was going to be the next big thing and just crashed. I'm fascinated by the shared delusion
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Replying to @scottjenson
I think
@Padday and@BrianRoemmele may disagree with this framing. It turns out that conversational UIs had much more limited applicability than we all believed but they’re still succeeding in various niches.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Adewale, thanks for the mention. I think it is more looking like the CP/M computer interface of 1976. Wait till you see what true contextual personal assistants bring.
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When I say "crash" I don't mean 'vanish'. I mean Gartner hype cycle "Trough of Disillusionment". What we're using it for now is quite different than the hype.
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Scott, I hear ya. You know Gartner started out the hype cycle on the personal computer. It crashed in disillusionment but was it accurate? You have a personal computer in your pocket. You will have a personal assistant—everywhere.
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It looks like we're on the same page? This mostly came from my frustration about how we talk about the journey any tech/product takes. So often people overreact, assume the worst/best and what we finally end up with is good, but relatively boring by comparison to the hype
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Scott, Yes! This is it precisely. The journey we have been on with the computer interface has been astonishing. From switches to punch cards and from keyboards, mice and gestures, we will arrive home to the human interface, our voice. The interface and the device—disappear.
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