Eric Brewer

@BrewerEricM

Nukes . Previously: NSC Director for Counterproliferation, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for WMD. Nuclear proliferation, Iran, DPRK. Views my own.

Washington, DC
csis.org/people/eric-br…
Joined June 2016
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    2 Sep 2020

    What are the geopolitical trends that will shape the future proliferation landscape and the U.S. ability to manage it? Check out the new and joint report that tackles this very question.

    1 reply 36 retweets 61 likes
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  2. 3 hours ago

    Total nonsense. But the strategy is clear: Feed conspiracy theories to the conspiracy theorist to instill doubt about Iranian culpability for any attack on US interests.

    New intelligence from Iraq indicate that Israeli agent-provocateurs are plotting attacks against Americans—putting an outgoing Trump in a bind with a fake casus belli. Be careful of a trap, . Any fireworks will backfire badly, particularly against your same BFFs.
    2 replies 1 retweet 8 likes
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  3. 4 hours ago

    ⁦ with important context⁩ here on Iran’s notification to the IAEA re 20%: - Known in advance - Would still require months of enrichment - About building leverage over Biden not provoking Trump - But Trump may not see it that way

    9 retweets 9 likes
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  4. Retweeted
    4 hours ago

    Interesting interview with Commander of 's IRGC-AF. He says the 2,000 km limitation on the range of its missiles "is not eternal." Noteworthy b/c the current head of the IRGC has been more willing to support an increase in range than his predecessor.

    1 reply 4 retweets 13 likes
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  5. Retweeted
    Jan 1

    Today informed board that Iran sent a letter on Dec 31 declaring its intention to produce 20% enriched uranium at Fordow in line with Majlis bill and that the “relevant part” of the design info questionnaire for Fordow “will be updated accordingly.” -1-

    3 replies 43 retweets 46 likes
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  6. 31 Dec 2020

    When it comes to who is more willing to court escalation, the answer is still the U.S. But as and I wrote about in March (and as Iran's strike against the U.S. base in January makes clear) Iran still has a healthy appetite for risk.

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  7. Retweeted
    31 Dec 2020

    Hey, Happy New Year's Eve, I want to talk about the federal workforce 1/

    18 replies 114 retweets 327 likes
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  8. 30 Dec 2020

    It’s official! 👏👏👏👏

    President-elect Biden has nominated as Deputy Secretary of Defense and as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. They know the Pentagon inside and out, and will work with Secretary-designate to keep us safe and secure.
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  9. 30 Dec 2020

    And yes, this analogy isn’t perfect, but it’s a pretty good starting point. And probably more entertaining than my actual article 😕 (which I still encourage you to read as it dives deeper on the above!). 12/12

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  10. 30 Dec 2020

    These are tough, but important questions. And the answers to them can shift over time.( and I discussed this on our convo last week centered on this article: ) 11/

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  11. 30 Dec 2020

    The US needs to continue to push Iran to cooperate with the IAEA’s investigation, but be more realistic about where that can lead. It also needs to do some thinking about what this past program means for a JCPOA 2 (it ain’t all bad) and efforts to sustain a deal over time. 10/

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  12. 30 Dec 2020

    To translate the analogy: The Trump policy of hinging any deal on a full Iranian confession about its past isn’t feasible, and isn’t necessary to achieving the more important goal—preventing an Iranian bomb in the future. 9/

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  13. 30 Dec 2020

    Ok, at this point, I think you get it: The banks robbers are Iran/Iran’s former weapons program; the police/judicial system are the US and international community; the parole deal is the JCPOA; and the new evidence is the nuclear “archive” smuggled out of Iran by Israel. 8/

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  14. 30 Dec 2020

    The better response is to keep working to make sure this evidence was about the past, use the restrictions in the terms of the parole to make sure they don’t rob any banks in the future, and leverage the continued scrutiny on these guys to our advantage. 7/

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  15. 30 Dec 2020

    Doing this would sacrifice the more important goal (prevent bank robberies) to the lesser, more elusive goal of getting the criminals to confess (recall that the evidence was already overwhelming, and the guilty verdict rendered before the new details emerged). 6/

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  16. 30 Dec 2020

    What’s the right response to this new discovery? The WRONG response would be to end the terms of the parole (remember, it was working—they weren’t robbing banks) and try and throw them back in jail until they admit to their prior plans to rob the bank (which they won’t do). 5/

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  17. 30 Dec 2020

    The former bank robbers agree. For a few years everything is going fine—they are abiding by the terms. But then, the cops turn up more evidence about their earlier planned bank robbery. New witnesses, new documents—these guys had done more preps than previously believed. 4/

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  18. 30 Dec 2020

    The terms of parole? You have to wear an ankle monitor. You can’t have a gun. You need a police escort anytime you enter a bank. And the cops can stop by your house anytime. If you abide by these restrictions and don’t get up to any funny business, these will ease over time. 3/

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  19. 30 Dec 2020

    Imagine there’s a group of criminals that get arrested for planning to rob a bank. They deny it of course, but the evidence is strong: They’ve got blue prints of the vault, weapons, and a getaway car. They are tried, jailed, and eventually offered parole. 2/

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  20. 30 Dec 2020

    ICYMI: Last week I wrote a piece reflecting on Iran’s past nuclear weapons program (halted over 15 years ago) and why it still matters for U.S. policy. I was going to do a thread summarizing the article, but I think an analogy might be more helpful...1/

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  21. 23 Dec 2020

    It’s anyone’s guess what Trump is thinking at this point. But what lessons has Iran learned to date on U.S. threats and follow through, and how might Tehran be interpreting this Trump tweet? and I wrote about this earlier this year:

    ...Some friendly health advice to Iran: If one American is killed, I will hold Iran responsible. Think it over.
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