Bret Devereaux

btw - the Sparta numbers can't be right. Confederacy was able to maintain 50% with guns 100x > fist Sparta sword 2x > fist. A fist and a stick at those ratios would overwhelm swords

Because of the structure of the Spartan economy, the lowest functional estimate of the ratio between the spartiates and the helots is around 1:4 or so (so c. 14% citizen, 17% non-citizen free, 69% enslaved).

69% slaves with only a sword to enforce it doesn't seem feasible. Insurrection was a constant threat to slave-owners in the US at 50% slave and they had guns.

Ok, right but the problem here isn't if it 'seems feasible' - it happened. In any event, I think you over wildly overestimating the oppression capabilities of single-shot muskets with long reload times as compared to armored heavy infantry with spears.

well we think it happened is the point. Slaves could have been a lower %. Single shot guns were sufficiently superior that slave owners preferred them to spears. revealed preference is the key here.

They literally couldn't have been for the reasons I already mentioned: spartiates are legally barred from engaging in farming, but own most of the land, and require helots to farm that land in order to eat.

In any event, your assumption that a society couldn't push over 50% enslaved is just obviously, comically false. Haiti was 89% enslaved prior to its revolution and had been that was for decades before it produced the eventual successful revolt.

Right but in Haiti's case it needed guns and it failed. I'm not saying Sparta is impossible. More likely the healots weren't treated as badly and were more like a medieval peasant those ratios were enormous as well