Thanks for that really clear post! I'm neither a historian nor a statistician -- statistics had a bad rep among the linguists I studied with in the early nineties -- so I never could figure out what was wrong in that book.
On the blog: Fireside this week: I discuss my objections to 'cliodynamics' and the possibility of using statistics w/ the surviving evidence about the past to discover "general laws" of history "with the same methods physicists and biologists use."https://acoup.blog/2021/10/15/fireside-friday-october-15-2021/ …
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Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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Now I'm curious if there are historians who dabble in zoology and promulgate "Great Beetle theory"
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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What do you think of papers like Daron Acemoglu's, about say, democratization or long-run development?
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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So here’s the dirty secret about those huge error bars you mentioned for Roman elites and budgets and the like: it’s also true for zoology. We have only the foggiest idea of the population sizes of many, many species. The models Turchin uses are designed to handle that. 1/
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It would require an insane and infeasible amount of work to estimate the total calories in the Tennesse Valley feasibly available to Formosan termites But we can still predict demographics trends to a certain extent, because of scale-invariant tendencies in their life cycle. 2/
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