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One reason I do not think this outcome is likely is the structure of the National Guard. It's not hard to see a situation where Team Yellow does a coup and Team Green governors, refusing to recognize the federal government, call up their Nat. Guard, a thing they can do.
Team Yellow leader then attempts to nationalize those guard units, but the Team Green governors are going to tell them those nationalization orders are illegal orders, due to coup. That decentralized structure makes a fait accompli coup really hard.
Yeah, that's definitely a possible scenario as well. I would not like to put money / the country's prosperity on which would happen.
Honestly, the likeliest outcome of such a fight is the de facto end of central govt authority over civil rights and the entrenchment of corrupt local elites that rule on behalf of locally dominant identity coalitions - especially in red states but also in blue states.
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