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But some parts of the collapse of the USSR looked basically like this. When Yeltsin confronted parliament in 1993, it became clear that the military would back him, and that was that. (Whereas other parts turned into e.g. Chechnya.)
One reason I do not think this outcome is likely is the structure of the National Guard. It's not hard to see a situation where Team Yellow does a coup and Team Green governors, refusing to recognize the federal government, call up their Nat. Guard, a thing they can do.
Team Yellow leader then attempts to nationalize those guard units, but the Team Green governors are going to tell them those nationalization orders are illegal orders, due to coup. That decentralized structure makes a fait accompli coup really hard.
Yeah, that's definitely a possible scenario as well. I would not like to put money / the country's prosperity on which would happen.
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