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Unfortunately I think the 8-year-olds understanding of what a civil war would be like makes it probably more likely rather than less. How many confederates would have signed up in 1860 and 1861 if they knew what 1865 would look like? Some, but fewer, I'd guess.https://twitter.com/GrahamGallaghe9/status/1448020049852239883 …
There is a whole lot of 'home by Christmas' sort of thinking coming from the very most foolish corners of the ideological spectrum. But it wouldn't be the first time people let that kind of rhetoric and a healthy dose of stupidity back them into a catastrophic course of action.
For my part, even a brief inventory of countries which have undergone serious civil violence in the last few decades suggests that such a conflict in the USA would be absolutely ruinous for everyone. Modern warfare is crazy destructive, be it conventional or COIN.
the opinion of southern elites and normal folk in the run-up to the civil war is really interesting. There was a fair amount of thinking in the north that they were bluffing, and a lot of folks in 1860 in the south weren't quite sure how far they would take it.
1860 wasn't the first time that South Carolina had threatened secession, and no one had much of an idea where it would lead back then. When you play with fire, sometimes the train derails and blows up.
In Russia we have the «маленькая победоносная война», roughly translated «small victorious war» (or, «a splendid little war» from Roosevelt's letter) just for this very idea. It was a quote about the then still-in-the-plans Russian-Japanese war of 1904—1905.
Everything looks easy when your opponent just lost to a bunch of hillmen in Toyota Hyluxes. That that loss owes more to apathy than anything else, and a war closer to home would likely be considerably more interesting is lost on most proponents.
Your observation reminded me of a similar scene in the early part of the movie GONE WITH THE WIND. A "home by Christmas" prediction that was later proved horribly wrong.
I remember a semi-famous observation, roughly: "Nothing is more seductive to political leaders than the idea of a quick victorious war." It does explain a lot of horrific mistakes.
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