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And in that case, A2/AD, mines, missiles and infantry training are going to do a lot more to make any US intervention in the conflict likely to succeed (by there being a military presence we can support there, rather than a fait accompli) than prestige systems.
Which in turn, both reinforces the security umbrella - because it's harder to create that ideal fait accompli - and in the event deterrence fails AND we decide to intervene anyway, are the sort of systems we'd get a lot of value out of.
IMO the umbrella is first and foremost nuclear. It's the same factor as was at play in Europe during the Cold War, where the USSR never didn't have a dominant conventional position. Our conventional forces were purely there to stop a smash and grab.
What reinforces this in my view is the way in which we have strenuously ensured that neither Taiwan nor Japan ever built a nuclear program. The implicit guarantee is that they are covered. For that not to be immediately raised would mean the collapse of our Pacific position.
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