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At least some members of the Japanese government were trying to put out peace feelers before the atomic bombings or the USSR (as early as late July). On the flip side, even on August 9th, the cabinet was deadlocked making it hard to say what the crucial determinant was.
The ability of the USA to drop additional bombs was apparently a major consideration in the final discussions leading up to the surrender, as was the (dim) prospect of actually repelling a US landing on the mainland, in addition to the entry of the USSR.
You have to remember the tremendous focus in IJN/IJA military though on 'decisive battles' - the hope the military was pinning things on was that an allied landing could be thrown back with such losses as to force a negotiated settlement.
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