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I'd argue that WWII Japan is the trickiest example - it is clearly the closest that strategic airpower ever got to winning a war. The more one-sided example is actually the air-war in Europe.
At this point, even the more robust defenses of the air war in Europe circle around arguments like 'well it at least lured the Luftwaffe into the air where it could be destroyed" (which, to be fair, I think there is something to that argument). But 'morale bombing' failed.
My understanding is this remains a thorny debate, our primary evidence for thinking within Japanese high command is inconsistent (and also frequently self-serving) and so historians still argue about the relative importance of the key factors leading to surrender.
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