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Honestly, we need to just have a conference entitled "all of the things that won't get you a tenure-track job" where the participants are all contingent or alt-ac and just read off of their CVs. Some of those 'papers' would be quite long.https://twitter.com/KempoJesse/status/1419456867777064960 …
I know people whose books came years after their jobs; I know people with books out with no jobs. I know people hired with effectively zero publications. I obviously don't have a permanent academic position yet and I like to think I have been reasonably productive.
Some of that speaks to hiring committees with nonsense priorities that prefer to take fresh Phds from high prestige programs instead of long-time-contingents whose proven track record makes them less of an unknown.
(By the by, that practice, 'hiring for promise' is very foolish. Why hire promise when there are quite a number of folks out there with multiple years of proven academic productivity and teaching evaluations, where you KNOW they won't be a disaster?)
But fundamentally the problem is deeper - as the disconnect between the number of PhDs and the number of hires grows (and its mostly fewer jobs, not more PhDs, at least in history), its inevitable that luck becomes more and more of a component.
But it is truly frustrating to see how some - by no means all, but some - tt/tenured academics are determined not to learn about this so that they can continue in the happy fantasy that the job market is fair and selected them because they were special and the best.
I bailed from academia upon completing my PhD because it was clear that the whole field I was in was going nowhere fast (at least in the US), and there were just no jobs. Advisers were telling students that if they had any backup career in mind it was time to get out. And I did.
The best thing I could have done, to continue after the degree, would have been to have specialized in something else--but I couldn't have predicted what was going to happen to the field when I got in.
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