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Macedon in the first half of the fourth century is hopelessly unstable (dynastic struggles, invasions from neighbours) and basically not a factor. Everything changes around 360 BC when Philip comes to power, but no one saw that coming at the time.
It's also, if I may add, not very militarily effective, even when they were united. Pre-Philip II Macedonian armies tend to fare pretty poorly against polis armies; decent cavalry but infantry that couldn't stand up to hoplites.
if you wouldn't mind a very obvious question from an avid reader of both...what kind of magic did Phillip II pull? Almost everyone agrees he built the war machine that Alexander used, but I've yet to see a good "how".
The normal reading suggestion here is probably still E. Borza, "In the Shadow of Olympus" (1990) though there are more recent works to be sure. The short version is adroit diplomacy plus comprehensive military reforms, plus a financial windfall to finance it all.
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