It's not a forgone conclusion that jobs will be lost to this intervention in meaningful numbers. It's an assumption. One reason progressives aren't inclined to follow it is that even if this worked perfectly conservatives would still make the same argument against the *next* hike
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @PetreRaleigh
Sure and again - I am not arguing for 'do nothing' - I want us to do the same thing (raise incomes at the bottom of the distribution) through different means (EITC expansion). I have no brief for the 'do nothing' crowd, I think they are silly.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @BretDevereaux
I don't have a strong opinion about whether this would be equally or more effective, and no prima facie problem with doing it. But I think the idea that wage hikes are on the table for mostly nefarious reasons is frankly offensive, and begs multiple questions.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @PetreRaleigh ja @BretDevereaux
For one thing, if this were actually an easy sell to the professional base of the Democratic party, it would have been on the table years ago.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @PetreRaleigh ja @BretDevereaux
For another, "your members will be paid a lot more but you'll have half as many" has never been a viable deal for a union to make, and service workers' unions have huge organizing challenges as it is. You can argue they're wrong about job losses but not that they don't care.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @PetreRaleigh
The unions obviously don't expect to lose members. They may, quite reasonably, expect costs to be passed on to consumers (e.g.: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20171445&&from=f …), which would be fine with me if those were mostly high-income consumers...but these are minimum wage jobs...
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BretDevereaux ja @PetreRaleigh
...and so I worry that cost-pass-through will primarily go to *low* income consumers.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @BretDevereaux
If cost pass-through is small, as I for one expect (and I think most progressives do also), then the fact that many of these low income consumers ought *also* to be beneficiaries of significantly expanded income should cushion that blow.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @PetreRaleigh
But what if the cost pass-through and disemployment are not small? That study indicated cost-pass-through in Hungary was 75%. Denmark's minimum wage, which kicks in at 18, has an apparent disemployment effect of 33%
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @BretDevereaux
75% of what? If you're saying businesses will make consumers pay for most of their increase in labor costs, well, of course. What I'm suggesting will be small is the actual amount that raises the cost of a burger.
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So, in already high-wage areas, I'd expect minimal cost movement because the jump from the existing wages to the new minimum wage would be small. In low wage ares, cost movement might be pretty significant, since labor costs are by far the largest chunk of costs in fast food.
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