It's not a forgone conclusion that jobs will be lost to this intervention in meaningful numbers. It's an assumption. One reason progressives aren't inclined to follow it is that even if this worked perfectly conservatives would still make the same argument against the *next* hike
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @PetreRaleigh
Sure and again - I am not arguing for 'do nothing' - I want us to do the same thing (raise incomes at the bottom of the distribution) through different means (EITC expansion). I have no brief for the 'do nothing' crowd, I think they are silly.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @BretDevereaux
I don't have a strong opinion about whether this would be equally or more effective, and no prima facie problem with doing it. But I think the idea that wage hikes are on the table for mostly nefarious reasons is frankly offensive, and begs multiple questions.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @PetreRaleigh ja @BretDevereaux
For one thing, if this were actually an easy sell to the professional base of the Democratic party, it would have been on the table years ago.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @PetreRaleigh ja @BretDevereaux
For another, "your members will be paid a lot more but you'll have half as many" has never been a viable deal for a union to make, and service workers' unions have huge organizing challenges as it is. You can argue they're wrong about job losses but not that they don't care.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @PetreRaleigh
The unions obviously don't expect to lose members. They may, quite reasonably, expect costs to be passed on to consumers (e.g.: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20171445&&from=f …), which would be fine with me if those were mostly high-income consumers...but these are minimum wage jobs...
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BretDevereaux ja @PetreRaleigh
...and so I worry that cost-pass-through will primarily go to *low* income consumers.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @BretDevereaux
If cost pass-through is small, as I for one expect (and I think most progressives do also), then the fact that many of these low income consumers ought *also* to be beneficiaries of significantly expanded income should cushion that blow.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @PetreRaleigh ja @BretDevereaux
The idea that consumers are in most cases also workers remains the biggest conceptual hurdle in most situations where the interests of the two are presented as in conflict.
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Vastauksena käyttäjälle @PetreRaleigh
The problem here is treating either 'workers' or 'consumers' as a single, solid block of people who experience things together. If - as the majority of studies suggest - there is a disemployment effect, you will have two groups of worker/consumers...
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...one group will experience wage gains that more than cancel out the price increases. The other group will be unemployed and facing higher taxes, reliant on a social safety net which has not meaningfully been enhanced.
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