You know, for all of the 'radical skeptics' out there on the internet who have such contempt for expertise...very few of them have learned to say 'I don't know' which is the most important thing someone with actual expertise can say. Funny how that is.
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The authors believe that the quantification of probabilities has gone too far, including many things whose odds can’t be accurately quantified because they are “radically uncertain” and not closed systems. They generally endorse narratives and “I don’t know” over quant models.
Yeah, working in ancient history often means quant. simply isn't available because there is no data; the best we can do is general description. Estimated quant. can be a useful exercise, but is too often mistaken for evidence by poli-sci or econ folks dabbling in the field.
