You know, for all of the 'radical skeptics' out there on the internet who have such contempt for expertise...very few of them have learned to say 'I don't know' which is the most important thing someone with actual expertise can say. Funny how that is.
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I haven't actually read - or even heard of - that book before. But my doktorvater impressed, from an early point and with frequent repetition that a historian must know when to say "I don't know" and also "We don't know" and the difference between the two.
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It’s one of the most thought-provoking books I’ve read this year. Not in a “this has changed my outlook” way, but in a “constantly pausing to debate their intriguing argument” way. A little over-focused on debates inside economics as a discipline, but still of general interest.
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The authors believe that the quantification of probabilities has gone too far, including many things whose odds can’t be accurately quantified because they are “radically uncertain” and not closed systems. They generally endorse narratives and “I don’t know” over quant models.
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