I'm not sure we should regard the affair as a major crisis. Dio gives it literally only a sentence (58.21.5) and thinks it mainly important because it resulted in the death of a notable equestrian by suicide before Tiberius bails everyone out.
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I disagree. The historian Charles Bartlett called it a "severe economic crisis", and every financial and economic historian I have read on the subject thought it was a serious financial crisis. Perhaps it takes people with banking experience or knowledge of financial history...
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @michaelxpettis, @BretDevereaux ja
to recognize how familiar the sequence of events were, beginning with years of capital outflows prior to the crisis. At any rate if this were only a minor event, it is hard to imagine why Tiberius, someone not famously liberal with his money, would have made such...
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @michaelxpettis, @BretDevereaux ja
...a large, interest-free, 3-year loan to bankers when loans at the time were rarely extended for more than a few months. This was unprecedented, and was unlikely to be a response to a minor matter.
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It was not unprecedented. Tiberius' two immediate predecessors, Julius Caesar and Octavian had made similarly sized donations to either the people of Rome, the public treasury, or both.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BretDevereaux, @michaelxpettis ja
Octavian (Augustus) is at pains to point out that he made similarly massive donations to the public (RG 15) and that he bailed out the public treasury no less than four times, at a number significantly greater than what Tiberius spent (RG 17)
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BretDevereaux, @michaelxpettis ja
I suppose at some point it depends here on what we understand as a major crisis - evidently significant enough to drag in the emperor...but mostly because its consequences were confined to the landholding elite that dominated Roman politics.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BretDevereaux, @michaelxpettis ja
I think the relative weight the sources give to it compared to the Sejanus affair - which occurs immediately prior in Tacitus and Dio (and chronologically) is illustrative. It is essentially a footnote in the back few years of Tiberius' reign.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BretDevereaux, @michaelxpettis ja
I should note that, looking at his article, Bartlett's claim of evidence of 'significant capital outflows' (he more accurately notes it as a shortage of money in circulation, which is, I'd argue, more accurate) is balanced on T. Frank, "The Financial Crisis of 33A.D." (1935)
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BretDevereaux, @michaelxpettis ja
Given that the study of the Roman economy has turned on its head twice since 1935, I'd myself have been pretty cautious citing Frank on such a point. I too have piled through his An Economic Survey of Ancient Rome (1933/1940)...
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...but our sense of money flows and the money supply in Rome has changed a LOT since then. Thanks to a mix of coin die studies and Greenland ice cores, we know that, at least empire-wide, the money supply was expanding in this period.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BretDevereaux, @michaelxpettis ja
Meanwhile, following more recent models of Roman economic activity (e.g. Hopkins, "Rent, Taxes and Trade" (1995/6) might well suggest currency inflows to Rome, rather than outflows.
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That's very interesting. Typically soaring real estate prices lead to a "wealth effect" and outflows, and Rome at the time seems to have been importing a lot of luxury goods, according to Temin, which also would have suggested metallic outflows.
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