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So contingency would be ... the opposite of "If Archduke Ferninand wasn't assassinated, WWI would still have happened?"
Right. A historian might argue that WWI was 'contingent' - that without the exciting event (the assassination) it would not have happened. On the flip side, historians have argued for a less contingent WWI - that by, say, 1910 or so, the war had become 'inevitable.'
Of course, everything is contingent if you go back far enough - this is a core observation of history and is useful as a reminder that our own social values and systems are contingent too - but you can also talk about contingency in degrees.
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