I wonder if you could clarify what option 1.5 looks like. Are we talking enough capability for these states to defeat the PLA/PLA-N (or hold it off indefinitely)? Or are we talking improved time-buying capability for a US/International response?
I'd be interested to see. My gut suggests to me that countries motivated by revanchenist nationalistic claims are often irrationally loss-tolerant. And the PRC has, as I understand it, spent a lot of effort encouraging those feelings among its populace.
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'irrationally' here not a pejorative, but in the sense of 'more loss tolerant than a realist perspective might suggest based on the concrete economic/security gains of the move.'
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Eric knows this topic better than I, but asymmetric porcupine strategies may shift the balance of power a bit. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/16/asia-pacific/f-16s-trump-taiwan-looks-inward-deter-china-weighs-porcupine-strategy/ … That said, I think of that approach as a hope of maintaining the status quo re: Taiwan as China gains capability rather than a way to pull back.
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