3) We stay in the eastern pacific, and since our goals (democratic and independent Taiwan, S. Korea, etc) conflict with the PRC's goals, we engage in great power competition over those conflicts. 12/xx
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Option (2) has been unacceptable for a long time, and I don't think Ashford or anyone else is arguing at this point to just hand everyone nukes and see where the chips (and fallout) falls. 13/18
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But here is where I want the disengagement doves to be more honest about their position: disengagement almost certainly means selling Taiwan into the same oppression as Hong Kong. It probably means other E. Asian states becoming PRC satellites. 14/18
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The same policy, applied in Europe, would be similarly bad news for the Baltic states. And there is an argument there, a sort of every-democracy-for-itself why-should-we-have-to-pay-for-it argument. 15/18
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But I want the people making that argument to be *honest* about it, that it means throwing many of the world's small democracies to the wolves because no % of GDP spending is going to let Taiwan beat the PRC alone (or Lithuania beat Russia). 16/18
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It seems that the great majority of foreign policy experts, of politicians, and of American voters find that unacceptable though. And *that* is why we're pivoting to great power competition, which is why, as
@mattyglesias puts it, we're building more boats. 17/181 vastaus 1 uudelleentwiittaus 12 tykkäystäNäytä tämä ketju -
Anyway, it's a good podcast, worth a listen,
@EmmaMAshford is smart and sharp, I just wish she had given the other side a bit more of a friendly airing, or@mattyglesias had brought on someone to argue the point (e.g.@ConsWahoo who sure does love ships). end/183 vastausta 0 uudelleentwiittausta 9 tykkäystäNäytä tämä ketju -
Tämä twiitti ei ole saatavilla.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @taylorgrayson, @EmmaMAshford ja
Two reasons. 1) that is what we tried for the last 30 years and it clearly didn't work. This is why the events in Hong Kong spurred such a radical shift in thinking - they were clear evidence of the not-working-ness of engagement.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BretDevereaux, @taylorgrayson ja
And then 2) persuading great powers not to follow their perceived interest has a nearly 0% track record of success. It is pretty obviously in the PRC's interest to dominate its neighbors, arranging the region as it sees fit.
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And it is clearly in the interest of the PRC leadership not to have nearby zones of free speech and democracy which obviously raise questions about the legitimacy of a one-part authoritarian regime.
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Vastauksena käyttäjille @BretDevereaux, @taylorgrayson ja
And that's before one even gets into traditional thinking about the place of China as the regional hegemon. Even as just a raw exercise in real politik, it's not hard to see what the PRC is thinking and why they won't be convinced otherwise, save through force-deterrence.
0 vastausta 0 uudelleentwiittausta 0 tykkäystäKiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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