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More broadly, I was frustrated in the discussion because saying 'no debate took place' precluded discussing *why* the stance has changed the way it has which in turn I thought didn't really present an understandable case for why Biden is going where he's going. 8/18
So here is my version of it, from what I've read. The fundamental problem is this: given China's size, economic influence and military power, and its clearly expressed territorial and hegemonic goals (e.g. Hong Kong, Nine Dash Line, skirmishes w/ India)...9/18
The USA is left to choose between three basic scenarios. 1) We pull out of the eastern pacific, leaving Taiwan, the Philippines, S. Korea and to a lesser extent Japan to fall under the hegemonic influence of China. 10/18
2) We pull out of the eastern pacific, but clear the way for Japan and South Korea to become nuclear weapon states, capable of deterring China in their backyards on their own but also potentially sparking runaway nuclear proliferation. 11/18
3) We stay in the eastern pacific, and since our goals (democratic and independent Taiwan, S. Korea, etc) conflict with the PRC's goals, we engage in great power competition over those conflicts. 12/xx
Option (2) has been unacceptable for a long time, and I don't think Ashford or anyone else is arguing at this point to just hand everyone nukes and see where the chips (and fallout) falls. 13/18
But here is where I want the disengagement doves to be more honest about their position: disengagement almost certainly means selling Taiwan into the same oppression as Hong Kong. It probably means other E. Asian states becoming PRC satellites. 14/18
The same policy, applied in Europe, would be similarly bad news for the Baltic states. And there is an argument there, a sort of every-democracy-for-itself why-should-we-have-to-pay-for-it argument. 15/18
But I want the people making that argument to be *honest* about it, that it means throwing many of the world's small democracies to the wolves because no % of GDP spending is going to let Taiwan beat the PRC alone (or Lithuania beat Russia). 16/18
It seems that the great majority of foreign policy experts, of politicians, and of American voters find that unacceptable though.
And *that* is why we're pivoting to great power competition, which is why, as @mattyglesias puts it, we're building more boats. 17/18
Anyway, it's a good podcast, worth a listen, @EmmaMAshford is smart and sharp, I just wish she had given the other side a bit more of a friendly airing, or @mattyglesias had brought on someone to argue the point (e.g. @ConsWahoo who sure does love ships).
end/18
China's territorial goals - aggressive claim line in India (but that leaves out all but ~1 million of its people). All of Taiwan. Nine-dash (that it already possesses). It has settled all other disputes (a lot of them) peacefully. Not good, but not quite regional conquest
But of course a level of hegemony over smaller SE states. Many states lived under hegemony of superpowers during CW though. But it's clear Taiwan will pay a big price.
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