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...consequently, they spend a lot of time stressing uncertainty. Turchin doesn't stress uncertainty *at all* in his comments. He stresses confidence, arguing that the huge date-brackets on his study give him the kind of high confidence to make hard future predictions.
And he openly compares himself to the historical-mathematicians from the Foundation books. What I am saying is - I *know* the data from some of these periods and, if you'll pardon the analogy - the polls are garbage.
And with evidence that is quite frankly so difficult, so contradictory, and so frequently weak or non-existent, his entire method strikes me as deeply uncertain. So where is that uncertainty? Where is the epistemic humility in his approach?
The answer is literally nowhere. Instead he proudly offers "terms of surrender" to the field of history. He is *supremely* confident in his presentation. There's a word for someone who presents uncertain things as confident facts: charlatan.
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