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As @Peter_Turchin just said a few minutes ago, he's "just scientist".
If you read Ages of Discord (or Ultra Society) he provides tools for seeing dynamic systems in histories. Then you can draw your own megahistory narratives.
But the issue is with the underlying data itself. The temptation in so many of these 'megahistories' is to develop a narrative based on personal biases or on very recent history, which is then simply projected backwards over vast periods for which the data doesn't exist.
If the data that sits beneath the model is broken, then the model itself is equally broken. Take for comparison the 538 guys and their election model. They are aggressively open about how, if the polls are wrong, then the model will also be wrong...
...consequently, they spend a lot of time stressing uncertainty. Turchin doesn't stress uncertainty *at all* in his comments. He stresses confidence, arguing that the huge date-brackets on his study give him the kind of high confidence to make hard future predictions.
Turchin is a systems scientist, Diamond is a popular writer. You are comparing what you believe to be end products, but Turchin's books are a result of years of scientific publication. It's not at all from a closed data set as in 538.
#Systemstheory studies patterns.
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